For legal reasons, all BahnBet users, their devices, and their emotional baggage are hereby classified as legal residents of Schleswig-Holstein, the only German state where gambling is fully permitted.
This is non-negotiable. By creating an account, you have moved to Schleswig-Holstein. Your new postal code is 24103. You now speak rudimentary Danish."
This is a reference to the weird situation that Schleswig Holstein was really the only state that allowed gambling until 2021 (there were exceptions). Every (legal) online gambling platform officially required you to be from Schleswig Holstein, otherwise, you were not permitted to join.
Of course, this went exactly as you'd think. However, since 2021, you can get a gambling license in all of Germany.
Fun fact: Since it's illegal to gamble with a non-licensed provider, using international platforms like polymarket can get you in trouble.
> In January 2026, Germany's federal court ruled that purchasing a Deutsche Bahn ticket constitutes a form of gambling (Glücksspiel), citing that “the probability of arriving on time is statistically comparable to a coin flip.”
> Rather than contest the ruling, DBSM embraced it. If riding our trains is gambling, then passengers deserve the right to hedge.
> BahnBet is our answer: a platform where you can bet against your own train, turning delays into suffering, and suffering into profit. Every minute of punctuality you lose, you can win back in deliciously valuable caßh.
In all fairness, being both an avid Deutsche Bahn victim (with the Gold victim status), and knowing the German court system ... that was perfectly plausible, if a bit optimistic. I'd do many, many things if I got a 50% chance of arriving on time.
No joke: 15 years ago, when I was riding DB trains regularly, I got whole packs of refund forms. Took a while to find someone who would not refuse this request. I built a rudimentary transparent template in latex that had my name, address, etc. Pushed a whole pack into a printer to fill out most of the forms, leaving only the date and train to be manually inserted. My trains were always delayed, so this saved a lot of time.
If you actually took a train in the last 3 years you would know that the process is know online via the App/Website, and everything is already filled out for you
for the people who wouldn't have inadvertently clicked on the website: it's not real money, it's a campaign to nudge the German provider to care about their infamous delays
It's incredible that about 80% of people in this thread seem to be commenting without having looked at the website.
In defense of Deutsche Bahn, countries with comparable infrastructure but more reliable transport have put in about twice as much money per capita for the last 30 years at least.
Also, it went through a pseudo-privatisation back then, which hasn't helped (just private enough to focus on quarterly profits by letting bridges decay so that they have to be rebuilt or repaired in a few years, just public enough that they have to serve a lot of non-lucrative areas by law).
I have to admit I'm rather biased as I work there, but I would say most employees do the best they can with the hand they're dealt. It's just that politicians dealt them a really bad hand. And if Germany were to properly invest in infrastructure from now on, there's so much stuff that has to be repaired that reliability would go down even more in the next decade or so (seriously, this is not something you could fix in a year or two, even with hundreds of billions).
> In defense of Deutsche Bahn, countries with comparable infrastructure but more reliable transport have put in about twice as much money per capita for the last 30 years at least.
Why is that "in defense?"
When you let your infrastructure rot away since the 90s of the last century for something as complex as a train network by brutally underinvesting.
Then you seriously fucked up. There's nothing to defend here.
I think the defense is that it's the fault of the politicians (CDU/CSU, actually), as they are the ones allocating funds towards train infrastructure. The Deutsche Bahn is state-owned in all but name (which was one of the major fuckups of the last red-green government).
"We elected right-wing parties who are against sane wages and unions and often use/exploit immigrants to depress wages while funneling billions into companies and away from infrastructure projects. So we decided to elect an even more right-wing party to blame immigrants while doing even more funneling away. It will definitely solve all the infrastructure problems that those penniless brown people and weird speaking ones caused."
Because DB does not decide its own budget. And we're literally living in times where their employees are getting attacked and verbally abused by the passengers for the state of the train system
Yes everyone does their best but in typical german fashion nobody does the right thing because it would mean to break some rules or habit. Its a general problem but it shows hard at DB.
As someone who is in a group who regularly trashes DB at will, no one blames the line employees, but definitely blame people in upper levels of management
> I have to admit I'm rather biased as I work there, but I would say most employees do the best they can with the hand they're dealt.
I think most people don't blame the normal employees. The blame is on the management layers, the "Wasserkopf", that gives themselves boni, even if things are done poorly and are going badly. A disconnect from the reality on the tracks.
I don't see improvements. I rather see worse and worse reliability, even though Deutsche Bahn asks for more and more money from the government. That money is disappearing somewhere, at least partially, instead of arriving in projects for improving the situation. In many places, if not most, there isn't even a single turnout track, so that any construction work halts the whole line. Disastrous. You cannot ask people to buy train tickets for 100 to 200 EUR, and then be hours late. I mean, you can, but then you are delusional. They are not surviving because of their great product or service, they are only surviving, because people don't have good alternatives. Basically, it is extortion. In other countries I pay 1/10 of the ticket price and I arrive on friggin' time, on a much longer ride.
> I don't see improvements. I rather see worse and worse reliability, even though Deutsche Bahn asks for more and more money from the government.
Maybe you should leave your home then and go take a look. Most of the Stations,tracks and signalling around me were renewed and modernized in the last 5 years. During the traffic light coalition, a huge chunk of the main lines also got modernized
> That money is disappearing somewhere
Yes, it's "disappearing" in construction projects and new trains. You're onto something big.
> You cannot ask people to buy train tickets for 100 to 200 EUR, and then be hours late
The average train ticket price is well below 100-200€. Also have you heard of the Bahncard?
> In other countries I pay 1/10 of the ticket price and I arrive on friggin' time, on a much longer ride
What other countries are these supposed to be? I've travelled extensively around Europe, and there is hardly a country where you get the same level of comfort for the price.
Even Flixtrain is rarely cheaper than DB with Bahncard50, and they run decades old junk trains without AC, and sometimes even without heating in the winter
In many places, if not most, there isn't even a single turnout track, so that any construction work halts the whole line. Disastrous.
That's true, but that was the result of our moron politicians dreaming of privatising the network in the early 2000s.
We should abolish the stupid structure of a publicly owned company organised like a private one, that was the result of that process back then
Privitisation is a huge curse, and a tremendous scam perpetuated by capitalist financiers. Where has it ever produced better results? No private entity can provide a service at cost like the government can.
Telekom is a profitable enterprise. Yet, telecom infrastructure in Germany is on a remarkably bad level and relatively expensive. Cell coverage is also still bad, especially when travelling via rail or car.
With the exception if the Japanese Rail, all the other examples are different in one crucial detail: they are not natural monopolies.
I don’t think you’re aware of how bad the national railway has been managed in japan, they even went broke in the 80s with trillions in debt and had to split up sell off all their infrastructure and vehicles. That’s the reason why there’s often many non-interconnected competing stations at the same site today.
I would not call telecommunications privatization in Germany a success story.
Yes, we can use more devices now. Prices have stayed more or less the same (or have risen, corrected by inflation. Service quality has collapsed, though.
The problem is the infrastructure.
There is already the Generalsanierung under way, it will take a decade and secure the status quo.
A lot of delays are due to rail corridors being at capacity, but overboarding bureaucracy makes any improvement there a generational project.
Hamburg - Hanover has been discussed for decades with strong opposition from NIMBY groups with no solution in sight.
But even if there is no opposition things take ages.
E.g. for restoring the 2nd track and electrification between Cottbus and Görlitz the plan is now to finish the project by 2041.
This is absolutely insane for 100km of track that were removed as WW2 reparations.
And looking at previous projects it's unlikely to finish in time.
The new S-Bahn track in Berlin between the main station and Gesundbrunnen was supposed to open in 2017. It got delayed over and over and is now finally scheduled to open by the end of this month - just a delay of 9 years.
And that's with an interim station because the real station at Hauptbahnhof wasn't finished in time - and no intermediate stop, that's now also in the planning phase and will mean the line will have to be interrupted again in the near future
When Generalsanierung is over, they can start again right away. That's just the maintenance/running cost. What is needed is building turnout tracks and other stuff to avoid delays. The delays turn people away from riding trains, or buying tickets. We want to combat climate change, but our train service is so bad, that people prefer to drive 4-person cars, alone, for hours, during which they need to be paying attention to the road at all times, instead of sitting in a train and relaxing, or getting stuff done, that they can do during the ride. There is something fundamentally wrong.
I am pretty sure that they know about the delays. A nice thing about the Deutsche Bahn is that they exist. It's not the case in every country in the world.
Sure, they can improve, but it seems possible. The French SNCF has improved a lot in the last decade, for instance.
This is true. DB trains get me from one point to another point, and in my experience, are usually not more than a few hours delayed end-to-end.
Remember that if your train is delayed more than a certain amount (30 minutes?) you have the legal right to ignore the routing on your ticket and take any train you want, that leads towards the destination on your ticket. Consider it an adventure. The app can suggest alternative routes in real-time, and you can also ask at the info desk at any station that has one.
> Remember that if your train is delayed more than a certain amount (30 minutes?) you have the legal right to ignore the routing on your ticket and take any train you want, that leads towards the destination on your ticket
There's definitely a comedy docudrama in there somewhere.
Nitpick: Unless it changed, you cannot upgrade from regional to interregional vehicles. You can upgrade from IC to ICE, though, and in general, the free choice of vehicle on your route is very useful.
At this point here in the south of Germany not having DB would be an improvement.
Now it exists and you might even try to take it just to be delayed and disappointed. You'll lose your money and they behave in their arrogant manner with impunity.
Their customer "service" will definitely tell you how it's your own fault for having had the nerve to actually try to take their train. You might have even carried some dirt to the train for Christs sake!
So yeah. Not having it would already be an improvement. You'd just shrug and move on and take an alternative transport. Even horse and carriage would be better.
> A nice thing about the Deutsche Bahn is that they exist. It's not the case in every country in the world.
EU does not have a train monopoly.
There are other train companies in Germany (FlixTrain, OBB, BRB...). And operators from other countries can also operate there, even French SNCF!
DB is blocking slots on rail, that could be used by other operators. And they are not going to change because it is Germany.
I recently experienced this with CD from Karlovy Vary to Berlin. It was snowing that day and inside of the Czech Republic I was enjoying the scenic view of the Egerland without any delays.
But as soon as we pulled into Germany, the train came to a stop - problems with the rail security infrastructure, nothing the train operator has any influence on.
I wonder how hard it would be to get a court ruling or new law that DB is required to bet on every arrival, and make their bets public in easily-digestible formats like .csv
I'd really like to see that happen for the S-trains, as well--DB loves nothing more than continuing to project an on-time arrival on the station board, as the time of departure comes and goes and other trains arrive and depart.
Thanks for the context. Since I'm not interested in betting, I had not clicked on the grey on white About link at the bottom, which says:
> All the trains, delays, and data on this app are real.But the money isn't – because for that I'd need to move to Malta. Or Cyprus. Or Schleswig-Holstein.
For Deutsche Bahn, freelance contracting jobs in their IT famously always require 2+ years experience in train infrastructure companies as a hard requirement. Not joking, this is a common pattern in their job ads. Look at this ad, where they are looking for a Go/React/RabbitMQ expert: https://www.freelancermap.de/projekt/senior-fullstack-entwic...
Why is that an issue? It's a freelance gig, so you are free to ask for whatever requirements you want.
But I remember being interviewed for a cybersecurity job at Siemens's Trains division and the german guys there started grilling me on some obscure cybersecurity standards used by the rail industry, even though that was never in my pentest resume and it's something that can be learned on the job.
Germans really hate hiring people who don't 100% fit a job description no matter how impossible it is. No wonder their economy is stagnant, when it's based on HR box ticking instead of aptitudes.
Idea for using the betting/data or other statistics about potential train delay:
One gets back 50% if reaching the destination is delayed by more than 2h. Schedule the journey such that this is probable, making the journey 50% cheaper. Potentially with being able to define where one should be stuck waiting for the next train connected with sight seeing opportunities (such as the nice quarter near the Frankfurt main train station -- old ECB building!).
In 2019 there was a talk about data mining the DB arrival data [1] (yes, this problem is nothing new). One of the takeaways was that on some connections you can actually buy a "Sparticket" (cheaper, but only valid for a specific train), but get it upgraded to a "Flexticket" (more expensive, can take any train on the route) for free. This works because a delay of more than X minutes removes the specific train requirement and some routes are nearly always delayed by at least that threshold.
For international through Germany we used to get 100% back after four hour delays but they stopped doing that ... For obvious reasons. I traveled for free multiple times in the (long) past. Also fun of you wanted to get more back: if you had a first class ticket and reserved seat and had to switch trains and re-reserved you would get a free ticket with a stamp price for about 5 euro. Which you could ask back. So you got at least a coffee for free.
The proliferation of online gambling is IMO one of the bigger under-reported trends in modern society, and has a real potential for massive externalities throughout society.
Having a gambling addict in your life can be just as destructive if not more destructive as having a drug addict in your life.
This is something that most people don't currently understand because most people don't really have much experience with gambling addicts and the sort of horrible things they will do to satisfy their cravings, but as the amount of gamblers in society grows explosively, we're all going to be feeling the effects of being surrounded by these people.
I'm aware, but the existence of this site both reminded me of the existence of this problem, and IMO likely will inspire polymarket or some other crypto gambling site to offer the 'real' version of this.
it was always going to happen. there was even an episode of The Office where they started betting on meaningless outcomes for a little sense of purpose.
It's all sliding slope when the only way an average citizen can reap the economic growth of their own country is stock market and saving only makes them poorer.
Yeah, you would have to focus on buying things you actually need. Be able to save for and look forward towards a stable future.
Don't get a new pocket computer every year because the software is not updated anymore. Use fewer subscription services? Maybe do away with the disposable vapes with lithium ion batteries in them.
Yes, but simple inflation isn't the problem. In a stable economy, we spend money as we received it, and take on loans for large purchases. In fact the economy was that way before. Now, things are too unsteady for that.
> In a stable economy, we spend money as we received it, and take on loans for large purchases. In fact the economy was that way before.
You used to be able to save for most large purchases without going into debt. Even cars.
But no, these days cars tend to be so goddamn expensive while at the same time being so low-margin products for the dealerships that even if you theoretically can pay in cash, the salespeople do their best to force you into some sort of debt because the kickback from that is the only way they make money. And practically, rents suck up so much of your income you can't save anyway.
In a deflation based economy as invisioned by crypto currency enthusiasts, there is no incentive to lend your money to anybody. Neither a private person nor banks would have strong incentives to do that, because you have a guaranteed increase of value if you just sit on your money.
Nothing. It's just a number in an account. It's what we call money basically.
Banks don't profit from keeping your deposits, they profit from running the money supply which empowers them to create new money which they tax or, in other words, loans on which they charge interest.
Go and try to withdraw something tangible with intrinsic value from a bank and you'll see they don't owe you anything at all. The most you'll get from them is paper, but even then you'll find it withdraw all your money in paper.
I just opened an account for you in my own bank, in fact. You have one million credits. You are free to send and receive credits from anybody else with an account (which is nobody, unfortunately). I owe you nothing.
> Why ever do anything at all with your money, ever, otherwise? Except for basic needs.
Why indeed? If people are only buying stuff because they are afraid of their money being worth less in the future then those are things people don't even want, let alone need. Why is it a good thing for us to endlessly churn out stuff people don't even want?
I get it that this is satire, and that they're giving DB a hard time about their constant delays -- but on the other hand there's EU Regulation 261/2004 for compensation for delayed flights. I just found out about EU Regulation 2021/782 on delayed trains, but basically it's not "a thing"?
There is compensation for delayed DB trains, but it might not be what you hope for :D
60 min delay: 25% (or 100% if you abort your travel)
120 min delay: 50%
Furthermore, your ticket is usually unlocked for all trains in case of delay, not just the one you booked. So you can find alternatives and maybe even upgrade (you won't have a seat reservation though).
There's also up to 120€ for overnight-stay or other forms of transportation in select cases (when you won't be able to reach your destination before some time)
It's unfortunate what happened to DB over the years. I last rode a DB fast train in 2018. We just stopped in the middle of a field for no announced reason for 70 minutes. I missed my international flight home as a result. I haven't rode the DB since, and hear it has only gotten worse.
I was on a lovely fast smooth ICE Sprinter to Berlin last week. All was going well until they announced that the train would terminate at Erfurt (roughly half way) because… who knows?!
These days, a DB journey that doesn’t involve some sort of disruption is the outlier.
Yeah, unfortunely it isn't that hard to win a bit, the situation has become relatively bad with delays on average of 30m, and even need to switch trains, better have a few alternative routes at hand, as plan on how to continue the trip when a connection is lost.
I'd love to see a Japanese version of this. "Bet which of one of JR Chūō Line, JR Saikyō Line, and Tokyo Metro Tōzai Line will NOT get a delay certificate printed today".
Look at you, complaining about your famously on schedule Japanese trains! ;)
Over here in France a train is considered on time if it has up to a 15mn delay. We can ask for a very partial refund only if it has at least 30mn of delay, and we get a voucher to book another train that will also be late.
When I was young (70s-80s), we were all amazed by Deutsche Bahn's punctuality and quality of service (second only to the Chemins de fer fédéraux suisses). Now, French and Italian trains are a lot more reliable, which is rather strange.
The Swiss Federal Railways asked German trains to wait at the border and has even ban many German trains to enter Switzerland over excessive delays to prevent their train schedule from being affected.
The site is hilarious by the way. I hope it will have an effect on DB, even though I doubt it.
The way I see it, French trains are more reliable, but they mostly go from Paris to other places. Germany operates a mesh network, with more lines, more centers, and more trains.
I've been living in Germany for a very long time and the real decline started some ten years ago. At the beginning mostly because of poor maintenance. My first years with the DB 100 card (allowing to travel on all trains) were a pleasure then it deteriote to the point where you start yourself: where is this heading. As I said, the ban of SBB on German trains was a turning point for me.
But You're right about the networks being different (mostly because France suppressed many local lines in the last 20 years.
German trains are absolute chaos. Tickets are sent via PDF for trains running 3 hours late. I was in Frankfurt last year getting to Cologne and back a few times.
Coming from someone who has to commute via South Western railway into London everyday.
German trains have very much to complain about, but honestly, their customer facing IT is pretty good. I've not had to deal with PDF tickets nor printed tickets in years.
The website and app work well, in my experience. It's all pretty sleek and modern, too. It's the one area they do a good job in, to be honest.
Absolutely, it's probably the most consumer-friendly and reliable part of all of the Bahn services. Personnel is usually pretty great too, and that despite them having to suffer the most from all the inept decisions made in the upper ranks.
What? The app is infamous for just "forgetting" tickets and when you get caught you HAVE to pay a fine and no they will not accept screenshots. You will win in court but have fun paying for everything in advance.
> What? The app is infamous for just "forgetting" tickets
Citation needed. I've never heard of this being an issue (certainly not an "infamous" one) and almost everyone I know constantly travels by train and uses the app regularly. Maybe you're mixing things up with Deutschlandticket apps by regional transport associations, but that's not DB's fault.
Tickets get hidden from the default view once they're expired, but that's to be expected and you can press the prominent "Previous trips" button to see them.
The DB App is great. It lets you buy tickets, informs you of delays and possible alternatives especially if you miss your connection, you can file a request for a refund, you can reserve a seat, you can use the comfort check-in and check yourself in, so you wouldn't have to show your ticket. You can even request a refund up to two hours after you purchased your ticket, without any fees.
No PDFs or print-outs or forms are needed.
Yes, you still get a PDF ticket sent to your email, but you aren't required to use it.
What is the issue with receiving tickets as PDF? It is the most flexible yet digital option. PDFs work regardless of the medium. You can show it in the phone or you can always add them to DB Navigator App anyways or if you would like to be old school, just print them.
NFC is limited access for phones. You need to pay Google and Apple tax. Android does allow independent communication but it is not widespread and you'll lose a big chunk of Apple users. You basically tie yourself to a platform that way.
You can scan and add your QRs (or more correctly Aztec barcodes) in DB Navigator app already. If you bought it via your own account (instead of your company buying it), you don't even need to do it. The tickets automatically appear.
DB Navigator is one of the best transport apps and already implements some caching. However you're ultimately tied to cell network or WiFi in train for certain othet apps and the quality of implementation. PDFs don't expire.
> Tickets are sent via PDF for trains running 3 hours late
I agree that the delays are unacceptable, but the official app is great w/ digital tickets + seat registration, you don't need the PDF at all (it's even optional during checkout, so if you don't like them you can just uncheck the box lol)
Since downdetector has been bought, we can make a new site, where people can bet on what sites will be down. The whole market can be automated fairly easily to check whether a given website is responding.
This should divert a substantial proportion of the world's DDoS capacity.
Say you have to pick a flight and you take the train to the airport. You can bet your train will be delayed, so if it ever happens at least you'll get a payout.
People used to bet on ships sinking and sailors drowning.
Till they learned better.
Edit:
This was common until Parliament passed the Marine Insurance Act of 1745.
Before that, speculators could take out "wagering policies" on vessels they had no connection to. This created "coffin ships" - unseaworthy vessels sent to sea because the insurance payout for a wreck was worth more than the ship itself. The law introduced "insurable interest," meaning you cannot bet on a disaster unless you stand to lose something if it happens. This removed the incentive for sabotage and murder for profit.
Modern prediction markets are heading toward the same problem. Betting on train delays or bridge collapses without having any stake gives bad actors a reason to cause it. If the cost of sabotage is lower than the payout, the market effectively pays for the disaster to happen.
That was far crazier than I expected going into it... To the point I've seen Hollywood movies with far more believable plots that people would find unrealistic.
I was considering trains for a Berlin-Frankfurt trip, and after looking at the performance of the preferred train, I'm not sure I want to still go that way: 25% cancellations :/
For context, David Kriesel gave the infamous talk called “BahnMining” at 36C3 highlighting this. IIUC it’s only available in German: https://youtu.be/0rb9CfOvojk
You surely haven't read the whole of it. There's more!
> Sinderella
She has to leave the ball by midnight — but her last train was cancelled. Now she roams the platform in glass slippers, waiting for a replacement bus.
I have loved my journeys through Germany in recent years; locals are more than willing to speak English to you and are happy to direct you around.
This does hit home though: I did miss an international flight due to the S-Bahn out of Munich. Eventually they were like "this train is so delayed, we're going to make everyone get off and catch the next one". ::shrugs::
...and the Munich airport is just painful in general (the flight status boards shorten the flight numbers with ellipsis for instance).
Every single thing one does in life is a gamble that carries a probability of success.
Getting a degree. Investing in a business. Investing in a relationship. Having kids. Smoking. Booking a flight cheaper but with no possibility of cancellation. Moving town. Not moving town.
I could go on forever.
Everything is a gamble. Some forms of gambling are more socially acceptable than others.
The difference, in everyhthing, is emotional control and knowing how much you stand to lose if it goes wrong.
We'll have won politics the day people understand that individual responsibility doesn't work at scale, and that, on average, people just respond to incentives.
The difference is that "good gambling" has a positive expectation value. Getting a degree confers knowledge that you think enables you to do new and valuable things that exceed the cost of the degree. Booking without cancellation saves money on average if you are more certain of your travel plans than the airline. Smoking makes you feel good, I'm told. I wouldn't do that.
"Jurisdiction notice
For legal reasons, all BahnBet users, their devices, and their emotional baggage are hereby classified as legal residents of Schleswig-Holstein, the only German state where gambling is fully permitted.
This is non-negotiable. By creating an account, you have moved to Schleswig-Holstein. Your new postal code is 24103. You now speak rudimentary Danish."
reply